Labor is in the box seat to retain the federal seat of Eden-Monaro, with early results in today's by-election showing a swing of between 1 and 2 per cent to candidate Kristy McBain after preferences.
That swing was calculated by the ABC election computer, and came after about 37 per cent of the ballots had been counted.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labor MP Mike Kelly, and the seat covers a large area in southern New South Wales.
Labor's primary vote was down compared to last year's federal election, but preferences kept it ahead.
The swings to Labor at polling places on the South Coast, which was ravaged by bushfires last summer, were larger than in other areas.
However, the Liberal vote increased in Queanbeyan, which had been a stronghold for Mr Kelly.
As they cast their votes today, both Liberal Fiona Kotvojs and her Labor opponent referred to the extreme conditions suffered across Eden-Monaro.
There were more than 43,000 pre-poll votes cast in Eden-Monaro, an increase of 15.5 per cent on last year's federal election.
That meant less than half the residents in the seat would have physically gone to a polling place today.
"The swing seems to have settled in between 2-3 per cent to Labor," ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green said.
"So in some circumstances, I could almost call it at this point but I won't at the moment because we've seen such a shift with the postal voting in this election."
There are 14 candidates running for the seat, including Queanbeyan councillor Trevor Hicks, who is running for the Nationals and Matthew Stadtmiller, who is running for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party.
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Ms Kotvojs, a South Coast farmer, said "rebuilding the electorate" was the key issue, as she voted at Jerrabomberra Public School in Queanbeyan.
"It is an important choice; we've gone through a really tough six months in this electorate. We've had the fires, floods, drought and COVID-19," she said.
Ms McBain spoke to the media alongside Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese after casting her vote at Merimbula Public School, which she attended as a child and is now her children's school.
She had decided to run as a candidate because the community was in desperate need after suffering from drought, the bushfires and now the economic downturn caused by COVID-19, she said.
The result of the by-election is now considered unpredictable in what used to be a predictable "bellwether" seat.
For 17 consecutive elections, Eden-Monaro voted with the party who won government.
But since Mike Kelly won the seat back for Labor while the Coalition won the election in 2016, it has become very marginal.
It is currently held by Labor by just 0.9 per cent, and is very likely to be won on preferences.
The vote is the first electoral test for Mr Albanese's popularity, after he took over as federal Labor leader last year.
It's also the first time Prime Minister Scott Morrison's handling of the bushfire crisis and coronavirus pandemic will be tested at the ballot box.
Campaigning took a concerning turn when the Australian Federal Police (AFP) began investigating a "disinformation" campaign against Ms McBain.
Yesterday, a 32-year-old Sydney man was charged for allegedly sending the spam to voters, that appeared to be from the Catholic Church and linked the Labor candidate, among other things, to the coronavirus pandemic.
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